I believe the breakdown will occur when a Republican Supreme Court or Republican Congress issues a ruling against the policies and laws of blue states. Roe is the first of these, followed closely by environmental and gun control laws.
At some point blue state governors will refuse to comply. As you know the only national enforcement system is composed of federal marshals or the US military. I doubt that the US military will intervene in a domestic fight of this kind. Federal marshals will be easily outnumbered by each state's national guard.
A constitutional convention will have to be called and a complete overhaul of the federalist system of government will have to be put into place and implemented. Perhaps something like what you have so brilliantly described in your articles.
However by this time climate change will be in the mix. There will be climate refugees flocking to parts of the country where there is water. At this point Northern States will have to deal with these refugees in the same way we are now facing refugees at our Southern border. Canada will also be facing American refugees from the South trying to sneak across it's borders.
What most people are not keeping an eye on are the phenomena that are increasingly becoming evident in our skies. What is it and why is it here? Congress and NASA are now taking it seriously. What we know of it is that it has issued a severe warning to us about our use of nuclear weapons and imminent environmental disasters brought about by Anthropocene climate change.
That brings me right back to the evangelicals and religious folk and their beliefs as a whole. What happens when they realize we are not alone in the Universe, and that perhaps a much more powerful group from a technologically and scientifically advanced society is also here with us?
What happens when these folks realize this group looks on us as foolish, uncivilized animals? Where will their notion of a righteous god be in all of this?
I keep my mind in both places as all these parallel events around us rapidly unfold. I have no doubt however that our disintegrating environment will be the hardest challenge Americans and the rest of the world will have to face in about fifty years, if not before.
The Shadow has taken form and it threatens us all. First we will fight the Orcs and then we must fight for survival and imagine how, perhaps with help, we may create together a more gracious and humane civilization on Earth.
