I've always very much liked your grasp and analysis of US history. It's unblinkered. Can we indoctrinate De Santis with it? Smile!

You haven't taken into account the effects of extreme climate change and tipping points which will result from that. Certain states will experience droughts, floods, ocean rise and other massive disasters. Food production and water resources will become big issues. More than anything I see the effects of climate change as a critical factor for the US in the future.

States and local regions will protect their resources by force, and this may be one of the biggest factors driving a complete disintegration and destabilization of centralized government.

My advice is find a place which has access to locally grown food, locally derived water and far from big city crowds. I am not a pepper but it's important to consider issues such as turning lawns into gardens, reducing meat consumption and finding water sources that are renewable. Places where the water table has not been seriously depleted. I am happy to say I live in such a place with a thriving garden, bees, several large natural lakes nearby, and a lot of potential food roaming the woods.

What you suggest makes perfect sense in a climate-stable world...but once this reality disappears, the only driving force for each one of us will be individual or small group survival. I always recommend Parable of the Sower by Octavia Butler as an excellent, prescient, futuristic book of what we can expect.