Well Ethan have you read Jonathan Chait’s article today?

The Democratic presidential field has largely abandoned that model. Working from the premise that the country largely agrees with them on everything, or that agreeing with the majority of voters on issues is not necessary to win, the campaign has proceeded in blissful unawareness of the extremely high chance that Trump will win again.

A new batch of swing state polls from the New York Times ought to deliver a bracing shock to Democrats. The polls find that, in six swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona — Trump is highly competitive. He trails Joe Biden there by the narrowest of margins, and leads Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Normally, it is a mistake to overreact to the findings of a single poll. In general, an outlier result should only marginally nudge our preexisting understanding of where public opinion stands. This case is different. To see why, you need to understand two interrelated flaws in the 2016 polling. First, they tended to under-sample white voters without college degrees. And this made them especially vulnerable to polling misses in a handful of states with disproportionately large numbers of white non-college voters. The Times found several months ago that Trump might well win 270 Electoral College votes even in the face of a larger national vote defeat than he suffered in 2016.

Unfortunately the electoral college weights the Presidential vote in favor of the minority of voters. That’s a reality that we have lived with for hundreds of years and have been unable to change. It’s the white college voters without degrees — primarily male, who are now in charge in a handful of States, and until we find a way to change that it will be business as usual. Until Warren and Sanders can win them over in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona there is every possibility we’ll be stuck with Trump for another four years.